European Union

How youth influenced the EU election – and could do the same in Canada: U of T expert

Christopher.Sorensen — Fri, 07 Jun 2019 19:33:26 +0000

How youth influenced the EU election – and could do the same in Canada: U of T expert

Christopher.Sorensen Fri, 06/07/2019 - 15:33

Cutline

A demonstrator holds a sign outside the Portuguese parliament in Lisbon during a climate strike of school students on Friday, May 24, 2019 (photo by AP Photo/Armando Franca)

Tobias Wilczek

Topic

Our Community

Department of Germanic Languages and Literature

Climate Change

Europe

European Union

Faculty of Arts & Science

With major votes occurring within the span of five months this year, the European Union and Canadian federal elections are critical in deciding our planet’s future.

The results of the EU election – in which each European country elects an allotted number of representatives to the EU parliament – have already resulted in big changes, largely due to youth getting involved in politics.

Young people around the world are demonstrating a thorough understanding of the larger economic and environmental threats that are endangering not only individual freedom, but the very survival of our own species and more than a million others.

Around the world, youth protest movements like #FridaysForFuture have been growing steadily. Student protesters recently turned out in 120 countries and 1,700 cities to demand action on climate change just days before the EU elections on May 26. The next global student strike has already been announced for Sept. 20 and is expected to draw even bigger numbers.

It’s clear that young voters are bringing critical issues to the fore.

Young people protest ahead of the European elections during a climate strike of school students as part of the Fridays for Future movement in front of the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany (photo b Boris Roessler/dpa via AP)

As Europeans headed to the polls to elect a new European Parliament, the notion of a European “Green New Deal” was a big campaign issue. The German Green Party made history by coming in second place with 20.5 per cent thanks in part to the increased voter turnout in Germany (61.4 per cent).

The shift was due mostly to many first-time voters casting their ballots for the Greens, who won the highest support in the 18-to-24 cohort — 34 per cent — and 27 per cent in the 25-to-35 age group..

European Green New Deal

There was a renewed brawl pitting democratic eco-socialists and liberals against conservatives and far-right parties, as Europeans witnessed most strikingly in the first debate of the lead candidates of the pan-European parties.

The debate focused on “digital Europe,” “sustainable Europe” and the future of Europe.

The prospect of a European Green New Deal — popular among young voters — has been increasingly paired with renewed discussions about democratizing the European Union not just politically, but also economically.

Yanis Varoufakis’s transnational party European Spring included a Green New Deal in its platform, with the following pledges: “To dismantle the habitual domination of corporate power over the will of citizens; to re-politicize the rules that govern our single market and common currency.”

The party only marginally missed the threshold for securing seats in Germany and Greece, but more than 1.4 million Europeans voted for a Green New Deal. In Spain, the Socialist Party (PSOE) won on a Green New Deal platform.

As World Economic Forum writer Katie Whiting explained, a European Green New Deal would invest “at least five per cent of Europe’s GDP in emissions-free transportation infrastructure, renewable energies and innovative technologies, while creating jobs and transitioning Europe to zero-emissions – all without raising taxes.”

The European Greens, with 69 projected MEPs in the European Parliament, will certainly need to respond to calls from the Left Bloc (38 seats) and the Socialists and Democrats (153 seats) to work together on making Europe environmentally green and socially just.

They’ll have to do so while dealing with MEPs from pan-European parties like Volt Europa who want to democratize the European Union as far-right parties like Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) embrace increasingly nationalist and isolationist views.

The EU environmental agenda is also being shaped by particular national New Green debates. For example, in Germany, there is talk of reappropriating apartment units and car manufacturers to alleviate inequality and establish a more sustainable Europe.

Nationalize BMW?

Soon after discussions about nationalizing real estate properties emerged in the state of Berlin, Kevin Kühnert, the head of the 80,000-member-strong youth movement of the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD), was recently in the news for public remarks calling for the nationalization of corporations like BMW as well.

BMW is in the spotlight due to allegations it “breached EU antitrust rules from 2006 to 2014,” according to the European Commission. It’s being investigated for allegedly using illegal defeat devices to cheat regulatory emissions tests.

It’s not just young people making the case for abolishing private ownership of some entities. These daring remarks by young people, sometimes considered taboo, have inspired older generations, too. As Germany celebrates the 70th anniversary of the Federal Republic and its German Basic Law, even Baby Boomers are reminding the public about the law’s Article 15 that allows the nationalization of private property.

Demands for action on climate change are growing louder every day. British parliament recently declared a climate emergency due in part to ongoing protests organized by the Extinction Rebellion movement, which has also been supported by #FridaysForFuture student activist Greta Thunberg.

Growing movement?

The strong representation of Democratic Socialists federally in Germany, including young socialists up to the age of 35, is beginning to take hold across the Atlantic, where the Democratic Socialists of America, whose membership stands at 60,000, have also amassed more than 200,000 followers on Twitter.

While Canada seems to be lagging behind when compared to the European youth activism, voter turnout for those aged 18-24 increased by 18 percentage points from the 2011 federal election to 57.1 per cent in 2015.

And although provincial elections in Alberta and Prince Edward Island resulted in Progressive Conservative governments, the Green Party of P.E.I. are the first Greens in Canada to become the official opposition.

The progress is happening as many young Europeans and Canadians look up to young leaders like Germany’s Kühnert and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in the United States as they advocate Green New Deals. It’s time for young people in Canada to get more involved politically if they want to have a shot at saving the planet. For now, #FridaysForFuture may be a good way to start.

Tobias Wilczek is a PhD student in department of Germanic languages and literatures at the ��Ƶ.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Storm across the pond: U of T professor and former high commissioner to U.K. on Brexit turmoil

geoff.vendeville — Wed, 16 Jan 2019 20:23:38 +0000

Storm across the pond: U of T professor and former high commissioner to U.K. on Brexit turmoil

geoff.vendeville Wed, 01/16/2019 - 15:23

Cutline

Anti-Brexit activist Steve Bray stands holding placards outside the Houses of Parliament in central London on Jan. 16 (photo by Tolga Akmen/AFP via Getty Images)

Geoffrey Vendeville

Topic

Global Lens

Munk School of Global Affairs & Public Policy

Brexit

European Union

Global

It was a nightmarish week for British Prime Minister Theresa May. After the Brexit deal she negotiated with the European Union was decisively voted down in parliament, she barely survived a no-confidence vote Wednesday, 325 to 306. Two-and-a-half years since Britons voted in a referendum to leave the EU, they seem more divided than ever about how to go forward with it.

Mel Cappe, a professor in the Munk School of Global Affairs & Public Policy, served four years as Canada’s high commissioner to the United Kingdom. He says a second referendum on Brexit is likelier now, but it's still a “crapshoot.”

And for all May's tenacity, Cappe says, she's likely to be remembered as an “enormous political failure.”

Britons voted to secede from the EU in a referendum in 2016. Why has it been so complicated to carry this out?

Because for 50 years they have integrated their economies. How many trade negotiators did the U.K. have in 2016? The answer: zero. How many bankruptcy administrators did they have in 2016? Zero.

They didn't have a bankruptcy law in the U.K. because that was something that went through Brussels. What were the medical regulations in the U.K.? None because it was all being done through the European Union.

Why is it so complicated? Because you have to create a state. It's even more complicated than I'm making it out to be because you have the devolved administrations. So Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have their own regulatory frameworks for many things as well.

Theresa May once described the deal that was voted down this week as “the best and only deal possible.” What's her Plan B?

It's impossible to say. Her Plan B is almost irrelevant. It's a question of what she can negotiate with the European Union. There are 27 other governments that she has to make a deal with. And if she can't get a deal with the EU 27, it's all purely fictitious.

It's a huge challenge for her to be able to adapt what was a negotiated deal and then satisfy the divergent interests within her own party and within her own Parliament. My guess is that what she'll come up with on Monday is really a statement of direction: Here's what I plan to do.

At this point, can she back out of Brexit entirely, saying she's tried her best to make it work?

Go back to 2016, she said, “Brexit means Brexit.” Well, that's a meaningless statement. Nobody knows what that means. Remember there were 535 pages of a negotiated deal that was to lead to two years of negotiations. So “Brexit means Brexit” is totally useless. She drew red lines that said: We won't have a customs union, we won't have a single market, we won't allow for open migration. She drew red lines and therefore she basically defined what Brexit meant to her. But that isn't the only possibility.

Why hasn't she resigned?

Because there's nobody to take her place. She feels a duty, I think, to her country and she knows that there's nobody else out there who could do as good a job as she, and I think that's probably true.

I'm very sympathetic to the position she finds herself in. But I'm not sympathetic to her political capacity, her political skills. I don't think she's very sophisticated as a political actor the way Tony Blair was, for instance. David Cameron wasn't particularly skilled either. He couldn't bring together his own party. He had to have the referendum in order to satisfy the independentists in his own party.

Where does that leave May? She feels she's spent the last two years trying to come up with a deal. It hasn't worked. She feels she owes it to the country to carry on with this. She'll have to consume herself in swallowing her own red lines, making accommodations, finding a new arrangement. The possibility still exists that on March 29 at 11 p.m., they're out of the union. And the deadline stays there. They can unilaterally revoke it, but they can't unilaterally extend.

If we reach the deadline and the U.K. hasn't agreed to a new deal, what would the consequences be of a no-deal Brexit?

The consequences are pretty grave.

Already companies have been investing on the continent instead of in Britain because you can face 240 million customers or 60 million customers – which one do you want?

You [also] have a problem of things like regulations for flying. The air regulations are all done in Brussels and it's conceivable that British Airways, Ryanair and all the other airlines in the U.K. would not have landing rights in the EU. It's conceivable that all the medication that is required in Britain, to be imported from the EU, would not meet the regulatory requirements of Britain and not be able to be brought in quickly. You could solve all these problems over time, but you just don't have time.

There's a movement for a second referendum, the “people's vote.” Is that likelier to happen now?

If you listen to May, the answer is no. She has rejected it several times. The people have spoken, we have to do what they felt was important on June 23, 2016 – even if they've now learned how stupid that was. And she's basically stuck on that and she hasn't moved.

Is she going to be able to move? To come back to the prospect of an extension, I think the outcome that would be the best for them is to extend the Article 50 deadline, have a second referendum and pull the plug on the whole thing and call it two years of hell that we didn't fall off the edge of.

What are the chances of that? I put them at about 40 per cent. If you had asked me this two months ago, I would've said it was three per cent... And maybe it's increasing and maybe as we get further into it we'll see it's more likely. At this point I'd say it's a crapshoot.

How do you think Theresa May will go down in history?

Let me rephrase your question: How will history remember Jacob Rees-Mogg, who's led the European Research Group in parliament, the arch-Brexiteer? Like the Upper Class Twit of the Year, which is a Monty Python reference you probably don't know.

How will they remember Theresa May? They'll remember her as a valiant fighter, resilient, having the capacity to work tirelessly, to be a democrat but to have been an enormous political failure.

Note: This interview was edited for length and clarity.

U of T political scientist on worsening Catalan crisis

ullahnor — Fri, 27 Oct 2017 21:22:39 +0000

U of T political scientist on worsening Catalan crisis

ullahnor Fri, 10/27/2017 - 17:22

Cutline

Catalan riot police officers control demonstrators in Barcelona, Spain, on Friday. The Catalan parliament voted to establish an independent republic (photo by David Ramos/Getty Images)

Noreen Ahmed-Ullah

Topic

Global Lens

European Union

Faculty of Arts & Science

Political Science

The political crisis between Spain and Catalonia intensified Friday as Madrid imposed direct rule, dissolved the Catalan parliament and announced new elections after the secessionist region voted to establish an independent republic.

“It is unlikely that this process will go smoothly,” says Carolina de Miguel Moyer, assistant professor of political science at U of T's Faculty of Arts & Science. “There will be resistance from Catalan government officials and from a portion of the highly mobilized Catalan population that is in favour of independence. It is not difficult to imagine how this might lead to the use of actual force by the Spanish government as well as to clashes among a very divided Catalan population.”

Read in detail about the Catalan conflict

With the vote, what can we expect now? Spain has threatened to take control. Does that mean the army comes in? Are you worried about violence?

The Catalan regional parliament approved a declaration of independence this afternoon with 70 votes out of a total of 135 votes. Almost half of the representatives left the chamber in protest before the vote. Immediately after this vote, the Spanish Senate approved Article 155 of the Spanish constitution that gives the government powers to impose direct rule on any autonomous community that breaches the obligations of the constitution. In the application of Article 155, Spain’s Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has asked for the dissolution of the Catalan regional parliament, the dismissal of the Catalan government and Catalan regional elections within a period of six months.

The government of Spain will thus take control of the region of Catalonia in the coming days, and it is unlikely that this process will go smoothly. There will be resistance from Catalan government officials and from a portion of the highly mobilized Catalan population that is in favour of independence. It is not difficult to imagine how this might lead to the use of actual force by the Spanish government as well as to clashes among a very divided Catalan population. The situation is worrisome and insofar as it is completely unprecedented, it is hard to predict the next developments.

It is also important to consider whether new regional elections will solve the current impasse. On the one hand, it is unclear whether elections would yield a different (non-secessionist) political majority that could break the gridlock. On the other hand, there is a possibility that these elections are boycotted by secessionist parties in which case they would lose all legitimacy. In sum, the current conflict is far from being resolved.

Could this situation have been avoided? The Catalan government had asked for negotiations after the referendum. Would negotiations help?

During the past weeks both Rajoy and Catalan [regional] leader Carles Puigdemont have chosen to listen to their parochial electoral majorities instead of trying to find common ground among more moderate sensibilities. This has led to maximalist positions on both sides and many missed opportunities to find a solution to this conflict.

Puigdemont’s offer of negotiation has always been more symbolic than real. He has reiterated the will to negotiate the terms of Catalan independence knowing that the Spanish state would never accept independence as the starting point of a negotiation. Rajoy, on his part, has adopted a very unproductive legalistic approach to the situation instead of opening up a dialogue about reforming the Spanish constitution or defining the terms of a new referendum.

On Thursday, Puigdemont made a move that could be considered conciliatory: He considered calling early regional elections. But then he backtracked for two reasons. First, because of pressures from his extremist flank (pro-secessionists in his coalition threatened to leave the coalition if he called early elections). Second, Puigdemont did not get a straight answer from Rajoy that he would not proceed with Article 155 and the suspension of autonomy even if Puigdemont called for early elections. Rajoy could have offered Puigdemont those guarantees, but he did not. In doing so, Rajoy missed another opportunity to de-escalate the conflict.

And now we find ourselves in the worst possible scenario – a declaration of independence that is not going to be internationally recognized and that does not have the support of a solid majority of Catalans. And an unprecedented suspension of direct rule in Spain.

If Catalonia really does separate, can it remain independent for long?

The only way to be a viable independent state in the current international system is to be recognized as such by other states. It is unlikely that a majority of states will recognize this declaration of independence, and more importantly neither Spain nor the EU will recognize it. The Spanish Constitutional Court is likely to strike down the declaration of independence in a matter of days, and EU President Donald Tusk just said that their sole interlocutor is Spain.

The Catalan conflict: Two U of T experts weigh in on the battle brewing in Spain

ullahnor — Thu, 12 Oct 2017 21:16:00 +0000

The Catalan conflict: Two U of T experts weigh in on the battle brewing in Spain

ullahnor Thu, 10/12/2017 - 17:16

Cutline

Thousands gather in Barcelona today as a show of unity by opponents of Catalonian independence, a day after the central government gave the region's separatist leader until next week to declare independence (photo by Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images)

Noreen Ahmed-Ullah

Topic

Global Lens

Dalla Lana School of Public Health

European Union

Faculty of Arts & Science

Political Science

With Spain and Catalonia at a standoff following an Oct. 1st referendum, pressure is mounting on the separatist government of the autonomous region to either declare or abandon its push for independence.

Spain's Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has given Catalonia's separatist leader five days to say whether or not he has declared independence. If Catalonia confirms it has, the state will be given a further three days to withdraw that declaration. If they keep to their desire for independence, Madrid has warned it will invoke Article 155 of the constitution, allowing it to suspend the region's autonomy and impose direct rule.

In response, the Catalan leader has accused the Spanish government of ignoring his calls for negotiation. Earlier in the week, he pulled back from declaring independence by proposing a delay to allow time for dialogue.

U of T News spoke with two U of T experts on the region, both of whom are Catalan.

Carolina de Miguel Moyer, assistant professor of political science at U of T's Faculty of Arts & Science, says people are worried about the conflict escalating.

“The worry is that polarization among the public and the parties is leaving very little room for a negotiated solution,” she says.

Dr. Carles Muntaner, a medical doctor and a professor at U of T's Dalla Lana School of Public Health, has been advising the Catalonian government on health issues. On secession, he says the Catalan government should declare and implement independence immediately.

“The Spanish state does not understand negotiation, only force,” he says.

Read an update on the crisis

Catalonia has been talking of separation and independence for years. What triggered the referendum and brought this issue to the surface this time around?

Carolina de Miguel Moyer: Support for independence in Catalonia has gone from 20 to 25 per cent in the 1980s and 1990s to the current 40 to 50 per cent. Two factors can help explain this increase: First, in 2010 the Spanish Supreme Court struck down several articles of a reformed Catalan statute of autonomy that had been approved by the Catalan and Spanish parliaments in 2006. These articles established more devolved fiscal powers to Catalonia as well as the symbolic recognition of Catalonia as a nation and the use of Catalan as the main administrative language. This created the perception that Catalonia’s demands were not being respected, which fuelled an already-existing sense of regional grievance. Secondly, the financial crisis and the austerity measures that followed created substantial discontent among the population. Some Catalan parties, capitalizing on that discontent, criticized the central government for forcing to make cuts at the regional level, and they revived the idea that Catalonia was already paying too much into Spanish coffers.

These events contributed to a rise in electoral support for pro-independence parties, which led to a pro-independence majority government in the 2015 Catalan regional elections. This government viewed itself as having a mandate to pursue independence, and the means it chose to pursue independence was the Oct. 1st referendum.

Carles Muntaner: A new but modest autonomy statute was approved in 2005 by 88 per cent of the Catalan parliament and passed a Catalan referendum in 2006. But the Spanish government of socialists and the right, and then the Supreme Court, controlled by the right, stripped it from most of its usefulness in 2010. That triggered the end of hopes that there could be a new arrangement within Spain.

What would imposing Article 155 do to the situation?

Carolina de Miguel Moyer: Article 155 of the Spanish constitution gives the Spanish government powers to suspend Catalan autonomy if Catalonia “breaches the obligations that the constitution and other laws prescribe, or acts in a way that compromises Spain’s general interest.” The Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has been hinting for weeks about using Article 155 as a response to a potential declaration of independence from the Catalan government. It does not contain specific measures to ensure compliance, so it remains to be seen what the Spanish government will do.

However, given the defiance of the Catalan government up until now, using Article 155 to suspend Catalan autonomy would probably require political force. It is hard to predict where this would lead, but it has the potential to further escalate the current conflict, making any negotiation very difficult. The use of force has the potential to increase support for independence within Catalonia.

Carles Muntaner: Yes, he will use it to effectively end Catalan autonomy. He started already, days before the referendum, with detentions of civil servants, reductions in basic rights, closing websites and police repression.

Spain's prime minister said this week that Catalan's leader needs to clarify whether or not it has declared independence. Didn't the vote do that?

Carles Muntaner: Yes, Catalan [regional] leader Carles Puigdemont declared independence, but under pressure from the EU suspended its implementation for a few weeks to find a dialogue with Spain.

Carolina de Miguel Moyer: No, because the legality of the referendum is contested and because the Catalan government’s statement on independence on Tuesday was very ambiguous.

The government parties in the Catalan parliament passed a law before the referendum that stated that the parliament would declare independence within 48 hours if the referendum resulted in a majority of pro-independence votes. The referendum yielded 90 per cent in favour of independence with only 43 per cent turnout and few procedural guarantees.

Tuesday evening, the Catalan leader, Carles Puigdemont, addressed the Catalan parliament and declared that based on the results of the Oct. 1st referendum, Catalonia had earned the right to statehood and that he had a “mandate to transform Catalonia into an independent state in the form of a republic.” He then added he would ask the Catalan parliament to “suspend the effects of the declaration of independence” for a few weeks in order to seek a negotiated solution. After this address, he stepped out of the parliament and signed a declaration with his coalition partners that established the creation of the Catalan republic as an independent sovereign state.

The Catalan leader’s deliberate ambivalence regarding independence is seen as an attempt to appease the hardline separatists in his governing coalition while at the same time responding to the growing political and economic pressure developing in opposition to a unilateral declaration of independence and to seek a negotiated solution.

With the ball in his court, the Spanish PM has asked the Catalan leader to clarify whether he has declared independence. This request has been interpreted as a first step in the application of Article 155.

What is the mood in Spain right now, both in Catalonia and the rest of Spain?

Carles Muntaner: It depends on ideology. There has been a surge of nationalism in Spain with anger at Catalonia, including the first joint demonstration of 14 far right groups. Similarly, many Spaniards have adopted an open National and National Catholic stances, like in the Franco era. There have also been demonstrations in many Spanish cities in support of Catalonia's right to decide its future.

In Catalonia, the mood is a mixture of hope and fear, and uncertainty about more violence from the Spanish state. Let's remember the police actions of Oct. 1. The police are still there roaming the streets in defiance. There is also the fear of losing the autonomous self-rule but determination among a majority of independentists and sovereigns to stand up to Spanish aggression. They will not bow out easily, in particular the people of Catalonia and the independentist parties.

Carolina de Miguel Moyer: People are worried about the conflict escalating to a point of no return. The worry is that polarization among the public and the parties is leaving very little room for a negotiated solution. The economic impact is also visible, with key businesses relocating their headquarters outside of Catalonia in the past couple of days.

If Catalan declares independence would the EU accept its independence?

Carles Muntaner: Not initially maybe, but eventually. The EU is pragmatic, and the Catalan government has never wanted to leave it.

Carolina de Miguel Moyer: It depends on whether the Catalan declaration of independence is in accordance with the Spanish constitution. If Catalonia declares independence and the Spanish state does not recognize it, then the EU will also not recognize Catalonia as independent. After all, the EU does not want to encourage other separatist movements across Europe. However, if Catalonia were to declare independence in accordance with the Spanish constitution, which seems highly unlikely and probably impossible, then the EU will surely accept the independence of Catalonia. The EU has also made clear, however, that an independent Catalonia would automatically be outside of the European Union and would have to reapply for membership in the block. This process of reapplying to EU membership is unlikely to go smoothly given the veto power that member states have in secession negotiations. In sum, the EU is treating the Catalan question as a domestic problem for Spain that needs to be resolved within the Spanish constitutional framework. It has thus refused to intervene in the conflict despite calls for mediation from the Catalan government, although it has condemned the violence that occurred during the Oct. 1st referendum.

As an adviser to the Catalan parliament, have you given any advice on this situation? What would you advise?

Carles Muntaner: I only give my opinions on health policy, but I would advise them to declare and implement independence right away.

The Spanish state does not understand negotiation, only force. It's a state that has lost all its colonies but Catalonia. Their view of the state is totalitarian like in the Franco era, nothing changed in this arena. After Cambodia, Spain is the country with the most unearthed victims of the government (about 120,000), and Francoism killed many more of its citizens than say, Mussolini's fascism. The current government has one degree of historical separation from that regime. The only way out is the very hard Gandhian way – no violence, no co-operation and a proclamation of independence – in my humble opinion.

Could France's election spell the end of the EU? U of T expert weighs in

geoff.vendeville — Thu, 20 Apr 2017 13:35:28 +0000

Could France's election spell the end of the EU? U of T expert weighs in

geoff.vendeville Thu, 04/20/2017 - 09:35

Cutline

Posters for the candidates in the French presidential election are displayed outside the city hall in Rouen (photo by Frédéric BISSON via Flickr)

Geoffrey Vendeville

Author legacy

Geoffrey Vendeville

Topic

Munk School of Global Affairs & Public Policy

Subheadline

U of T political scientist Randall Hansen offers his perspective on the French presidential election

With the first round of voting in the French presidential elections starting Sunday, the latest polls show that the race remains tight.

It has all the makings of an unusual election. The unpopular current president, François Hollande, isn't seeking re-election – a first for an incumbent in modern French history.

In another twist, neither candidate of the two main parties appears to be ahead. Instead, a recent poll suggested that independent centrist Emmanuel Macron and the far-right's Marine Le Pen were on top.

If no candidate wins more than 50 per cent of the vote initially, a run-off between the top-two candidates will be held in May.

U of T News talked to Randall Hansen, a political science professor in the Faculty of Arts & Science and the director of the Centre for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies in the Munk School of Global Affairs, about the key issues in France and how the election might affect the future of the European Union.

It looks like neither candidate from the established parties on the left or the centre-right will win. Does that mean a shift away from politics as usual?

It will not be politics as usual. It will, we hope, be a situation in which a young, dynamic, pro-European president has no majority in the National Assembly, and not much of a basis in any party. The reduction of presidential terms from seven years to five, to match the National Assembly elections taking place in June, was meant to avoid this outcome.

In the worst-case scenario, we have either a candidate of the far-right or – though this is less likely – a candidate of the far left that plans to destroy the European Union.

What are the most important issues in this election?

They are the economy – above all youth unemployment – security and the European Union.

How could it affect the European Union? Is a Frexit likely?

It all depends on the result. If, which seems likely, the two-ballot system (France has a majoritarian, two-ballot system at the presidential level) keeps Le Pen out of the Élysée Palace and puts Macron in, then there is no chance of France leaving the EU.

If Le Pen wins, the chance increases, but it is not a certainty. She will not have a majority in the National Assembly, and it will block any withdrawal bill. She will then, like Charles de Gaulle, try to go over their heads with a referendum. If a French ‘leave’ wins, which is again unlikely, France would leave the EU, and there would be no EU.

If Mélenchon, the far-left candidate, were to win at the second ballot, the same dynamics would play out.

When Marine Le Pen’s father made it to the presidential run-off in 2002, there was a public outcry that led to his defeat. What do you expect will happen if she advances to the second round?

There will be no outcry. Everyone expects it and the markets have priced it in.

The outcry would follow a victory. There is little chance of that unless Mélenchon makes it to the second ballot. It would then be very likely that she wins but not certain.

There are reports of more fake news and Russian meddling in this election. Are these concerns valid?

Entirely. Russia has funded the Front National and far-right parties across Europe for years. Russian-funded organizations have spread lies about Macron in an effort to benefit Le Pen. It’s illegal and disgusting, but it’s standard fare and a classic weapon of the weak.

How will the shooting on the Champs-Élysées affect the election?

It might increase support for Le Pen or Fillon, and possibly push her into pole position at the first ballot, but I doubt the effect will be decisive at the second; all the other factors already discussed are more important. Security is already ‘priced into’ this election. The only caveat is that polls have proved themselves highly unreliable, and we’ve had surprise outcomes in the US (where Trump won) and in Austria and Netherlands (where the far-right did worse than expected).

Brexit vote means uncertain future for Europe and the UK, U of T experts agree

lavende4 — Fri, 30 Sep 2016 14:22:58 +0000

Brexit vote means uncertain future for Europe and the UK, U of T experts agree

lavende4 Fri, 09/30/2016 - 10:22

Cutline

(Photo by Carl Court/Getty Images. Other photos by Milan Ilnyckyj)

Terry Lavender

Author legacy

Terry Lavender

Topic

Global Lens

Brexit

Munk School of Global Affairs & Public Policy

Three months after a small majority voted in favour of the United Kingdom leaving Europe, it’s still uncertain how or when Brexit will actually happen, a panel of ��Ƶ foreign policy experts concluded at the Munk School of Global Affairs this week.

The panel consisted of professors Randall Hansen and Mel Cappe and Massey College Master Hugh Segal. The moderator was Tom Axworthy, former principal secretary to Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau and a senior fellow at the Munk School and at Massey College. The discussion was organized by Massey College and the Canadian Centre for the Responsibility to Protect.

Cappe (right), a distinguished economist and former High Commissioner for Canada to the United Kingdom, said the full effects of Brexit will not be known for a decade or more. The UK government and its civil servants are faced with a daunting task of devising new regulations and laws to replace European standards.

“All UK government ministries are affected,” Cappe said. “They’ll have to worry about animal health. They’re going to have to have emission standards, they’re going to have to have standards on GMOs and pesticides – none of which they have now because those areas were all under the European Union.”

Segal, a former member of the Senate and senior political advisor to former Prime Minister Brian Mulroney, agreed that Brexit will take time. “It may take a number of different Acts by the British Parliament to implement.” The benefit of this, he said, is that the result may be “a thousand little steps over time that are absorbable by the British economy.”

Hansen (left), the director of the Centre for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies at the Munk School, said Brexit would have mixed effects on Europe. On the one hand, it may lead to a more unified Europe: “Brexit has scared a lot of people, so breakup is less likely.” On the other hand, “the European Union will be a less liberal place economically.”

The three panellists agreed that Canada needs to be strategic about how it reacts to Brexit.

“Canada needs allies and Britain was an important one,” Cappe said. “However, Canadian investment in the European Union is important and I think that it will grow at the expense of our investment in Britain.”

Hansen said Canada should concentrate on building relations with Germany. “Germany is emerging as the superpower of Europe.” At the same time, we need to increase our efforts to build closer relationships with Europe as a whole and with the UK, he said.

However, as Segal (right) noted, it may be difficult for Canada to get the UK’s attention for a while. “All of Whitehall is totally engaged with Brexit. Nobody has time for anything else.”

Regardless of how Brexit plays out, the vote was unfortunate, the panellists said.

“There are huge adjustment costs to making this transition and when you get to the new steady state there will be additional costs. It’s bad for Britain, it’s bad for the European Union, and it’s bad for Canada,” Cappe said.

Segal agreed. “The only people dancing with joy at Brexit are in the Kremlin.”

U of T experts on Brexit results: “This is a disaster”

lavende4 — Fri, 24 Jun 2016 12:46:32 +0000

U of T experts on Brexit results: “This is a disaster”

lavende4 Fri, 06/24/2016 - 08:46

Cutline

A stock broker in Frankfurt reacts to the referendum results (Thomas Lohnes photo/Getty Images)

Terry Lavender

Terry Lavender with files from the U of T News team

Author legacy

Terry Lavender with files from the U of T News team

Topic

Global Lens

Brexit

Munk School of Global Affairs & Public Policy

European Union

Randall Hansen

Faculty of Arts & Science

U of T Scarborough

Munk School

Subheadline

Randall Hansen: “The Leave campaign was founded on lies”

The United Kingdom has voted by a 52-48 percent margin to leave the European Union after a divisive, often bitter campaign. U of T News will be updating this article through the day with insights from a wide range of experts.

We begin with Randall Hansen, a professor of political science at the ��Ƶ's Munk School of Global Affairs and an internationally renowned expert on European affairs. Hansen is in England covering the "Brexit" campaign but he spoke with U of T News reporter Terry Lavender by email.

Were you surprised by the results?

I was: surprised because of the polls and saddened by the result. But it has to be respected and Britain will leave the EU.

What does this vote mean for Europe?

It’s the greatest challenge to the EU since its inception. France and Germany (perhaps with Poland) will have to agree on a common position quickly, and make that the anchor of a common European response.

What does it mean for the United Kingdom?

It is a disaster. Economically, it will be poorer. Investment and businesses will leave the UK. Scotland will likely leave the Union. And politically it will be affected by decision in the EU without being able to shape those decisions.

What does it mean for Canada and the rest of the world?

We’re all paying a price in lower stock valuations. Canada has lost a great friend in the EU, and the world will lose a liberal voice in the European Union. The results also please some of the most loathsome political characters on the planet: Putin, Le Pen, and Trump.

Could this cause a domino effect, with other countries also exiting or pressing for concessions to avoid an exit?

Possibly some of the smaller countries: Denmark or the Czech Republic, conceivably Sweden (though I doubt it). France will not allow a referendum unless Front National wins. The EU has been damaged, but I think it will pull closer together in response to this awful shock.

Are public referenda a good way to decide such issues?

They are not. They are the favourite tools of demagogues, as we have seen. They divide families and countries. This one was a farce: the Leave campaign was founded on lies about the cost of the EU, the capacity of Britain to control immigration outside the EU, and the UK’s capacity to negotiate trade deals with other countries. Leave also crossed the finish line with a healthy dose of racism.

U of T News reporter Arthur Kaptainis spoke with Peter Pauly, professor of economics at U of T's Rotman School of Management.

“This is a sad day for the UK, the European Union and the world as a whole,” said Pauly, who has served as an advisor to the United Nations, World Bank and other international organizations. “The disruption of trade and capital flows as well as the destruction of asset values will be extremely costly for the entire world economy.

“It is a victory of xenophobic fear over rational decision-making.

“ A globalizing world‎ requires openness, not disengagement from your partners. The political implications are incalculable, and the long-term economic costs will be borne by the young who overwhelmingly favoured to remain part of the EU.”

Terry Lavender also spoke with Ato Quayson, University Professor and director, Centre for Diaspora and Transnational Studies at the ��Ƶ. Quayson said the referendum's outcome raises a number of concerns including UK scholars' ability to receive funding from the European Research Council – which “can only spell an impending crisis for research in the social sciences and humanities”.

And he had this to say about the impact of anti-immigration sentiments:

In terms of the anti-immigration platform on which the Leave campaign was run, it must first be understood that the original impetus was to protest against the increasing number of Eastern Europeans (especially from Poland) who had come to work and settle in the UK over the past decade.

These Europeans have completely changed the character of pubs in London, for example, where you are very likely to be served by an Eastern European rather than the standard British man or woman. All the major clothes stores in central London are manned by Europeans; Zara in Oxford Street, for example, is full of Spanish and Italians.

In the last couple of years political debate at Westminster has centred on the mischievous category of the "welfare migrant", typically imagined as Romanian gypsies who might want to come and drain the healthcare system.

The already existing anti-European immigration sentiment was only exacerbated by the rise of Syrian refugees, and it was this new category of refugees that gave legitimacy to expressing anti-immigration sentiments in general.

To put it another way, the British have had long-standing anxieties about being drowned in a tide of immigrants, whether from the EU or elsewhere.

U of T News reporter Veronica Zaretski spoke with Professor Mel Cappe, the former High Commissioner for Canada to the United Kingdom and former Clerk of the Privy Council.

A professor in the School of Public Policy and Governance at U of T and coordinator of the undergraduate program in public policy, Cappe had this to say about:

David Cameron

He didn’t have to do this – he did it for very little gain in the election and he did it to bring the conservative party together, but it ended up only dividing the party and the country. It was irresponsible.

The impact on Canadian trade

The Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) with Europe will likely still proceed though we lost one of our major allies, and one of the reasons we wanted to go in was because Britain was our major trading partner.

The political impact beyond England

The sub-national governments of Scotland and Northern Ireland will now be put at play as to whether they should be subject to England leaving the European Union. This is going to call into question the united part of the United Kingdom.

There’s a danger of course that once you unleash the forces of nationalism they are uncontrollable, and they may have wide reach for Catalonia in Spain but also potentially for Quebec.

The result of the Brexit vote is an indicator of an anti-globalization sentiment. People who are disadvantaged and feel that they lost control of their future feel like they can gain control. But a normal country in a modern world is subject to multilateral relationships, Canada is subject to all of these relationships as well.

Becoming internal-looking is not a way of being a normal country.

U of T News reporter Romi Levine spoke with Faculty of Arts & Science history professor Robert Bothwell, an expert in international Relations at U of T’s Munk School of Global Affairs.

Here’s what Bothwell had to say Brexit’s impact in Europe and Canada.

Trouble ahead:

Obviously everybody is going to run around and pretend that everything can be managed in a normal way. They’d be right to say it’s not the end of the world but I’m afraid the Brits are in for a very rude awakening and it’s just the beginning of their troubles.

Impact on the Commonwealth:

Where the commonwealth is concerned – I don’t think it’ll have much impact except if the United Kingdom disintegrates – and there’s quite a good chance of that. Then that will have some impact on the structure of the commonwealth. Sooner or later the commonwealth will disappear and this might be the occasion.

Impact on Canadian economy:

I think it affects us more politically than it does economically.

If you look at trade and investment, what happens in the UK doesn’t hugely affect Canada – it’s not our major preoccupation – and that’s true of the world in general.

There will be some readjustment because obviously it’s a huge blow to London as a financial centre... but does it really matter to Canada if the business is done in London or Frankfurt? I’m pretty certain in the future it’ll be in Frankfurt.

Impact on Canada’s interests:

If this is a blow to European stability – and if this decreases the coherence or esprit de corps of the European union – then that’s bad for us – we want stability in Europe and we want the European market to be as in tact as possible. We are very aware that the other side of Europe is Vladimir
Putin who must be absolutely thrilled at this news.

It’s very much in Canada’s interest to have a stable European partner that will be impervious to Putin and his brand of Russian expansionism.

Financial markets:

I think things will right themselves in terms of financial markets – there will be a new level but it won’t take too long for it to stabilize. The pound is an independent currency so it doesn’t directly affect the euro and the Eurozone.

Foreign investment:

Companies that have or were about to build in the UK will not do so – I think that’s absolutely certain.

Noreen Ahmed-Ullah spoke with Phil Triadafilopoulos, associate professor of political science at U of T Scarborough and the School of Public Policy and Governance. Triadafilopoulos said "disappointment and sadness" were his initial reactions to the results.

"The EU was established to rein in nationalism in Europe. Paradoxically, it has done precisely the opposite in Britain."

Triadafilopoulos also commented on:

The potential impact on the rest of Europe:

That will depend on the terms of the breakup, arrived at through negotiations. The EU faces something of quandary here: A hard line that strips British citizens of the rights to freedom of movement that they enjoyed as EU citizens may dissuade publics in other EU states from backing their own future “leave” campaigns, as the loss of visa free travel and labour mobility will hit a section of British citizens quite hard.

At the same time, taking a softer touch may lead to concessions on the part of the British, such that some forms of visa free migration between Britain and the EU continue (this would be good for EU citizens who depend on access to Britain for their jobs, say in finance).

The role of xenophobia and the migrant crisis:

Immigration became the defining issue on the leave side in the last days of the campaign. This reflects concern over the consequences of immigration, with respect to both labour market competition and matters of identity. The dream of ever deeper political integration in Europe is on the back foot; it may be done altogether.

A very old debate over how best to make rules – and who should make them – is well underway across the Euro-Atlantic region. Modern politics relies on some balance between expertise and the will of the people expressed through democratic channels. The Brexit campaign and referendum result demonstrate that this balance has been upset by the discrediting of experts and elites at the EU level and beyond.

My fear is that we are veering too far toward a politics of sloganeering and anger. That can be dangerous.

Terry Lavender also spoke with Assistant Professor Carolina de Miguel Moyer. The political expert who teaches European and European Union politics spent much of the day giving interviews to media at the CBC, CTV and other outlets but by late afternoon she was able to share some reflections on the story that had the world in its grip.

A divided society:

The results show that there are pronounced generational, geographical and class divides within British society. Those who voted leave are a sector of society that has been hit hard by the global financial crisis and more generally by the process of deindustrialization linked to globalization.

They are the older, less educated, and working class sectors of society. Their economic insecurity and their mistrust in the political class to solve their problems have been exploited by the leave campaign, which has turned the EU into the scapegoat for all their problems.

Those who voted remain were the “winners” of globalization: young, highly educated and mobile citizens.

Mistrust in the political class:

Interestingly, I think what we have seen in Britain is very much a reflection of political trends throughout Europe – and even in the United States – that are a response to the uneven recovery from the economic crisis. There is an anti-establishment spectre haunting Europe. There is mistrust in the political class, due to their inability to listen to people’s economic worries. Some political parties have taken advantage of this climate of mistrust to revive a worrisome nationalistic discourse with racist undertones.

The rise of extreme right euroskeptic parties:

The outcome of this referendum is a dramatic historical moment that has serious implications for the project of European integration. More immediately, the results of this referendum could fuel the flames of extreme right euroskeptic parties that are already on the rise all over Europe. The rise of these parties could make it especially difficult for the European Union to effectively deal with its two other most pressing crises: the Greek crisis and the migrant crisis.

More generally, this outcome creates an incipient crisis of legitimacy within the EU. The former president of the Commission, Jose Manual Barroso, once said in an interview [paraphrase]: the EU is the first non-imperial empire. By this he meant that the exceptionality of the EU lies in its ability to unite very diverse states not by military force but by political and economic success. The British exit is unprecedented in the history of the European Union and to a certain extent it has put into question the legitimacy and the efficacy of this Union.

Room for hope

On an optimistic note however, I think that in the long run the European Union might be better off without the UK playing its historical role of putting a halt on ever closer union.

European Union

How youth influenced the EU election – and could do the same in Canada: U of T expert

European Green New Deal

Nationalize BMW?

Growing movement?

Storm across the pond: U of T professor and former high commissioner to U.K. on Brexit turmoil

U of T political scientist on worsening Catalan crisis

Read in detail about the Catalan conflict

The Catalan conflict: Two U of T experts weigh in on the battle brewing in Spain

Read an update on the crisis

Could France's election spell the end of the EU? U of T expert weighs in

Brexit vote means uncertain future for Europe and the UK, U of T experts agree

U of T experts on Brexit results: “This is a disaster”

Read more on Brexit